Bitcoin trades as STH cost basis claim tested

Claim unverified: BTC not 24% below Short-Term Holder cost basis

A viral assertion that bitcoin is trading 24% below the Short-Term Holder (STH) cost basis remains unverified. Reviews of reputable on-chain coverage do not corroborate a 24% deficit in the latest snapshots. Reported magnitudes in mainstream analyses have been smaller and dependent on methodology.

As reported by TradingView, cohort-level stress has been noted, but the measured gap varies with the reference cohort and timing. Across recent coverage, the shortfall has generally appeared below the 24% figure.

Differences typically arise from whether one cites the aggregate STH cohort or narrower sub-cohorts, and from whether the benchmark is cost basis or the STH MVRV ratio. Rounding and period mismatches can also inflate headline percentages.

What STH cost basis, STH MVRV ratio, and realized price mean

The Short-Term Holder cost basis is the average realized price paid by coins last moved within a short-horizon definition, commonly 155 days, based on data from Glassnode. It aggregates on-chain acquisition prices for the STH cohort. The level functions as a dynamic reference for recent buyers’ break-even.

The STH MVRV ratio compares market price to that cohort’s realized price. An STH MVRV ratio below 1.0 indicates unrealized losses for recent buyers; a ratio above 1.0 indicates unrealized gains. Because it is dimensionless, it helps standardize stress across different price regimes.

Bitcoin  BTC +0.00% realized price is the network-wide average realized price across all coins. It is a slower-moving baseline that contextualizes aggregate cost structure beyond the short-term cohort.

How to verify STH metrics and interpret cohort signals

Verify current STH cost basis and STH MVRV ratio

To verify current STH metrics, consult an on-chain data provider or a market desk that cites those feeds. Confirm the cohort window and timestamp, then record the latest STH cost basis and STH MVRV ratio. Finally, compare the current BTC spot price to the STH cost basis and compute the percentage gap.

For example, at the time of this writing, a recent update reported spot near $86,500 against an STH cost basis around $105,500, implying roughly an 18% discount, as reported by Blockchain.News. Such snapshots vary over time and by cohort definition.

Media summaries can assist triangulation when they cite primary on-chain metrics. “Short-term holder MVRV fell to about 0.82, implying roughly 18% unrealized losses,” said CoinDesk.

Cohort windows and Bitcoin realized price: reading the gap

Cohort windows such as 1–3 months can diverge meaningfully from the aggregate STH cost basis, especially after sharp rallies or drawdowns. Shorter windows skew toward the most recent inflows, often reacting faster to volatility. Aggregate STH smooths that noise but can lag inflection points.

The gap between BTC spot and Bitcoin realized price highlights broader cycle positioning but should not be conflated with STH metrics. When STH MVRV is below 1.0 while spot also trails STH cost basis, near-term supply pressure and resistance can increase, although outcomes remain path-dependent.