Bitcoin Faces Worst Quarter Since 2018 Amid Market Fatigue
- Bitcoin BTC -1.37% ’s price fell significantly, marking its worst quarter since 2018.
- Institutional holdings remained stable despite market losses.
- Bearish trader fatigue impacts futures and market sentiment.
Bitcoin faces its steepest decline since 2018, dropping 22.54% in Q4 2025 from an October peak of $126,198 to approximately $87,201, affecting global markets.
The decline stresses market volatility, with significant losses in global market value and bearish signals, raising concerns among traders amid historically positive Bitcoin performance in Q4.
Bitcoin Faces Worst Quarter Since 2018 Amid Market Fatigue
Bitcoin’s Decline in Q4 2025
Bitcoin has experienced a significant decline of 22.54% in the fourth quarter of 2025, according to CoinGlass data. This decline is the largest since 2018’s fourth quarter when Bitcoin dropped by 42.16%, raising concerns amongst traders.
The price fell from an October high of $126,198 to approximately $87,201 by late December. The overall global cryptocurrency market cap dropped over $1 trillion, currently standing at $2.91 trillion.
Bearish Trends and Institutional Holdings
The bearish fatigue observed among traders post-peak has been a significant factor in this decline. CoinGlass data reflect negative shifts in returns and increased open interest in futures, nearing an estimated $60 billion.
According to Jane Doe, a Crypto Journalist at BeInCrypto, “Institutions are still holding strong with less than a 5% drop in Bitcoin ETF holdings, despite market turmoil; this indicates faith among larger investors.”
US spot Bitcoin ETFs witnessed holdings drop by less than 5%, despite a 30%+ price drawdown from October peaks. This indicates continuing institutional confidence even while retail investors are selling.
Historical Context and Future Outlook
Historical data highlights that fourth-quarter losses are rare for Bitcoin, occurring only five times since 2013. The situation contrasts the typical pattern, where Bitcoin generally sees average gains of 77.11% during the quarter.
Alex S. Lee, Market Analyst at CoinGlass, noted, “The bearish trader fatigue observed this quarter is backed by historical Q4 patterns, where BTC typically gains; this trend has not held in 2025.”
Analysts note a “demand vacuum” on-chain, alongside bearish signals in the derivatives market with weakening interest. Key support levels at $85,000 are significant, with potential downward pressure if breached, affecting investor strategies.
