CME FedWatch Indicates 91% Probability of September Rate Cut
- CME data shows 91% probability of a September Fed rate cut.
- CME derives probabilities from 30-Day Fed Funds futures pricing.
- Potential impacts on crypto like BTC and ETH from rate speculation.
The CME FedWatch Tool indicates an 88.4% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the September FOMC meeting, as inferred from futures pricing data.
A potential rate cut significantly impacts macroeconomic conditions, influencing asset prices, including cryptocurrencies like BTC and ETH, which often react favorably to easing monetary policies.
Lede
The CME Group’s FedWatch Tool reports a 91% probability of a 25 bp rate cut in September. This reflects the market’s expectations as derived from 30‑Day Fed Funds futures prices, updated as of August 7, 2025.
The Federal Open Market Committee is at the center of this discussion, as it sets the federal funds target range. The CME Group, using its strong position in rate derivatives, publishes these probabilities, indicating shifts in market sentiment.
Nut Graph
Expectations of rate cuts often lead to market reactions affecting risk assets. The potential cut could bolster assets including BTC and ETH, although crypto impacts aren’t detailed by CME sources.
The financial implications are vast, for a cut could influence economic policies, market strategies, and investor sentiment. Changes might impact monetary policy decisions, reflecting broader economic shifts. The FedWatch uses 30‑Day Fed Fund futures prices to gauge the probability of an upcoming rate hike.
Sections
Pertinent insights suggest a likely shift in financial markets correlated with macroeconomic moves. The consistent use of market data guides projections, assisting traders and analysts in preparing for potential economic changes.
Historically, rate shifts tend to create market volatility. Past data highlights the tendency for crypto markets to respond with significant movement when traditional financial mechanisms adjust. The Atlanta Fed’s Market Probability Tracker indicates that robust participation and open interest growth can be seen in rate products, thereby indicating active hedging around Fed outcomes.
CME Group, Official Rates Recap, “Currently, FedWatch shows a 91% chance of a cut in September,” with FedWatch data as of August 7, 2025.
