Kalshi Predicts 80% Chance of US Government Shutdown

Key Takeaways:
  • Kalshi predicts 80% chance of US government shutdown.
  • Kalshi and Polymarket’s probability estimates surge.
  • Potential financial impact remains speculative.
kalshi-predicts-80-chance-of-us-government-shutdown
Kalshi Predicts 80% Chance of US Government Shutdown

Kalshi and Polymarket predict an 80% likelihood of a US government shutdown at midnight, amid stalled funding negotiations and increasing Congressional tensions in Washington.

The prediction signals potential volatility in macroeconomic conditions, though historical data suggests limited immediate effects on major markets, including Bitcoin  BTC -0.38% and Ethereum  ETH -0.74% .

Kalshi has predicted an 80% probability of a US government shutdown occurring as talks on funding stall.

This forecast by Kalshi, a regulated event contract exchange, highlights pressures facing federal lawmakers.

Market forecast influences include comments from Senate leaders and Vice President Vance. No significant comments surfaced from congressional leaders like Chuck Schumer or Vice President J.D. Vance regarding Kalshi’s probabilities, although they commented on the legislative impasse.

With budget agreements stalled, regulatory impacts are looming over the market.

Unresolved funding could temporarily impact government operations or delay services.

However, crypto markets have historically shown resilience in similar events, often seeing no drastic shifts. Monica Guerra, Head of U.S. Policy, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, said, “We would remind investors that shutdowns are common, and once resolved, agency operating budgets and employees are made whole, blunting any broader market and economic impacts.”

Otto Bergmanr

Otte Bergmar is a crypto journalist covering Scandinavian and European blockchain markets, with a focus on decentralisation, privacy, and the AI–crypto interface. He reports on Web3 startups, market structure, and EU policy; from licensing regimes to consumer protection and cross-border compliance. At TokenTopNews, Otte transforms policy drafts, regulatory disclosures, and on-chain data into actionable, decision-ready insights, helping readers understand how regulation influences blockchain adoption across Europe.