Gold reclaims $5,250 as central bank buying, real rates eyed

Why gold reclaims $5,250: central bank demand and real rates

Gold reclaims $5,250, a psychologically and technically significant threshold. The move reflects resilient central bank gold demand and sensitivity to real interest rates that shape the opportunity cost of holding bullion.

According to J.P. Morgan, upward momentum reflects strong and persistent central bank purchases alongside reserve diversification toward real assets. In this framework, any easing in real yields tends to amplify upside by reducing the carry disadvantage of non‑yielding gold.

Key levels: $5,150–$5,180 support, $5,300–$5,600 resistance

In the near term, retail trader commentary on Reddit has mapped initial support at $5,150–$5,180 and resistance at $5,300–$5,600. Those bands frame whether the reclaim of $5,250 consolidates or fades.

Holding $5,150–$5,180 on closing bases would suggest buyers still control momentum; a decisive break beneath it would indicate a deeper pullback. Conversely, sustained trade above $5,300 would keep focus on the upper boundary near $5,600.

Institutional research has also emphasized structural, longer‑dated demand from central banks and ultra‑high‑net‑worth allocations rather than purely tactical flows. “Risks are skewed upside … central bank buying is expected to average around 60 tons a month this year,” said Goldman Sachs.

What could shift momentum next

Central bank gold demand versus investor flows

Central bank accumulation has been the anchor of this cycle, cushioning dips and steadying trend signals. If private‑sector flows slow or reverse while official purchases remain strong, momentum may moderate rather than break.

By contrast, synchronized investor inflows alongside ongoing reserve accumulation would tighten supply in the float and bias outcomes toward range highs. Absent that alignment, intraday swings around $5,250 can persist.

Federal Reserve path, USD strength, and real interest rates

As reported by Goldco.com, many market forecasts already incorporate the possibility of rate cuts, a path that would typically pressure real rates and support bullion if inflation remains sticky. That sensitivity helps explain why gold often rallies on softer growth data even without fresh haven shocks.

Stronger U.S. dollar levels or a more hawkish policy tone have the potential to cap rallies and trigger mean‑reversion near resistance, as noted by TradingKey. Under those conditions, failure to hold $5,150–$5,180 would raise pullback risk.

At the time of this writing, and strictly as market background, gold settled at $5,108.26 at the February 20, 2026 close.