Polymarket Lowers 2025 US Recession Odds to 39%
- Polymarket’s 2025 US recession prediction drops significantly.
- Improved market sentiment in recent weeks.
- U.S.-China relations partly credited for change.
In May 2025, prediction market platform Polymarket reported a reduction in the probability of a US recession to 39%, marking a considerable decline from previous estimations.
Polymarket’s latest projection shows a substantial shift in economic sentiment, reflecting a more positive outlook for the US economy. The reduction in recession odds suggests potential stabilization following previous economic concerns.
Polymarket’s Projection
Polymarket, a decentralized prediction market, reported a dramatic drop in recession probability from 66% in early March to 39% by mid-May 2025. The revision highlights changing market beliefs about future economic stability.
“Polymarket users now estimate a 39% probability of the U.S. economy entering a recession in 2025, a substantial decline from the previous peak of 66% recorded on March 2, 2025.” — Polymarket Official, source
The prediction market’s updated forecasts resulted from recent shifts, with positive developments in US-China trade playing a significant role. The adjustment reflects improved investor confidence and changing perspectives from January’s economic status.
The updated projection saw the market record over $5.31 million in trading volume, showcasing significant interest from investors. This indicates evolving beliefs about the economic trajectory, potentially impacting future financial strategies.
J.P. Morgan’s prior forecast of a 45% recession likelihood by the year’s end now offers a comparison to Polymarket’s outlook. The changes underline the volatility and reliance on geopolitical influences, particularly trade agreements.
Economic indicators will continue to be watched closely, as the National Bureau of Economic Research remains responsible for official recession declarations. Current sentiment suggests possible resilience against prior fears, although analysts caution against complacency.
