Polymarket’s US Recession Probability Drops to 26% in 2025

Polymarket’s prediction market recently adjusted the probability of a US economic recession within the year to 26% as reviewed on their platform. This shift provides real-time economic sentiment, according to Polymarket’s page data.

Lower recession odds matter as they indicate reducing economic concerns, influencing investor decision-making. Immediate market reactions were minimal, showing limited capital movement.

Polymarket, founded by Shayne Coplan in 2020, is known for being a decentralized prediction market platform. The recent probability decline signals a noticeable shift in how users perceive economic forecasts, reflecting a more optimistic outlook amongst its participants.

“Prediction markets like ours provide an essential snapshot of public sentiment toward economic events, and the current drop to 26% reflects shifting perceptions about the US economy.” – Shayne Coplan, Founder and CEO, Polymarket

Despite featuring on-chain trading activities, this event saw no major movements in connected cryptocurrencies like ETH or BTC. The Polymarket event attracted considerable trading volume totaling $2.4 million, yet no significant institutional involvement was noted.

The prediction market uses USDC for liquidity, which remains stable despite the probabilistic adjustments. This showcases Polymarket’s role as a sentiment indicator without shifting broader market economies immediately.

Although adjustments signified changes in economic sentiment, no immediate financial disruptions followed this probability drop. This reflects the broader uncertainty in economic forecasting.

Given the decentralized nature and forecasting role, Polymarket’s activity underscores potential reliance on prediction markets for measuring crowd sentiment in finance, with historical use in macroeconomic predictions further validating its influence.