Quantum Threat to Bitcoin: Insights from Experts on Manageable Risks
- CoinShares highlights a distant quantum threat, affecting ~8% of Bitcoin BTC -0.51% supply.
- Experts argue that quantum technology capable of impacting Bitcoin is a decade away.
- Bitcoin’s potential evolution to defend against quantum risks is considered feasible.
CoinShares released a report on October 2023 assessing that Bitcoin’s quantum vulnerabilities are limited and any practical threat is a decade away, affecting only 8% of BTC supply.
This assessment allays fears of immediate quantum threats to Bitcoin, highlighting secure existing cryptography and potential for future upgrades to enhance resilience.
Recent analyses have suggested that the threat quantum computing poses to Bitcoin may be less significant than previously thought. CoinShares researchers indicate that practical quantum threats remain a decade away, potentially impacting around 1.7 million BTC stored in vulnerable P2PK addresses. Leading figures, including Christopher Bendiksen of CoinShares and Charles Guillemet, CTO of Ledger, emphasize the challenges and improbabilities of overcoming current cryptographic measures.
“Breaking secp256k1 within a practical amount of time (<1 year) needs 10-100,000 times the current number of logical qubits; relevant quantum tech at least 10 years off. Long-term attacks can take place over years—could become feasible within a decade; short-term (mempool attacks) need <10-min computations—infeasible in anything but the very long term (decades)” – Christopher Bendiksen, Bitcoin Research Lead, CoinShares
Assessments from experts reveal that achieving the number of qubits required to break Bitcoin’s encryption is far beyond current technology. Christopher Bendiksen notes that the quantum computing required is at least ten years away, affecting only ~1.7 million BTC. Charles Guillemet concurs that today’s systems, like Google’s 105-qubit Willow, fall short given the exponential difficulty of scaling.
The direct financial risk to existing Bitcoin holdings remains minimal due to its underlying SHA-256 hashing system resisting quantum attacks effectively. Experts assure that Bitcoin has mechanisms in place to adopt new cryptographic standards as technology progresses. Dr. Adam Back states these conditions allow for gradual network upgrades without disrupting market stability.
Potential policy changes or technological upgrades may arise as the quantum field matures. Historical Bitcoin network enhancements, like SegWit and Taproot, demonstrate adaptability against impending technological challenges without significant market repercussions. Continued innovation and foresight are anticipated to integrate quantum-resistant measures into Bitcoin’s future development roadmap.
