Bitcoin Back Above $77,500 as XRP Leads Majors on Lower Fed Hike Odds
Bitcoin climbed back above $77,500 in Asian trading Thursday, with XRP leading the majors higher as CME FedWatch odds of a September rate hike eased to just above 62%, a combination that has restored risk appetite across the crypto market and shifted trader attention to Friday’s jobs report.
The rebound comes as the market digests a shifting macro picture, where softer expectations for Federal Reserve tightening are colliding with a still-hawkish minority inside the central bank. That tension, more than any single headline, is what is driving the current bid across large-cap tokens. For related coverage, see Tether Invests $20M in Mercado Bitcoin Funding Round.
Bitcoin reclaims $77,500 as risk appetite improves
Bitcoin traded just above $77,600 in the Asian morning hours on Thursday, up roughly 1.5% over 24 hours, CoinDesk reported. The $77,500 level matters because it marks a reclaim of the range Bitcoin lost during the market’s earlier macro-driven pullback, restoring the psychological floor bulls have been defending.
Momentum has since extended, with Bitcoin recently changing hands at $80,704, a roughly 4.9% move over 24 hours that pushed its market capitalization to about $1.62 trillion on daily volume near $31.3 billion.
Sentiment is confirming the price action rather than fading it. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index sits at 65, firmly in Greed territory, signaling that traders are leaning into the recovery even as the macro calendar stays crowded. The move echoes the resilience that underpinned BTC’s earlier bounce off lower levels when options positioning tightened.
XRP leads major cryptocurrencies in the latest rally
XRP led the majors at $1.36, up almost 3% and outpacing Bitcoin’s own gain, according to unconfirmed reports from CoinDesk’s market desk that were not independently corroborated by a second timestamped source. That relative strength matters because leadership from a large-cap altcoin, rather than Bitcoin alone, signals broader participation in the move.
When a major like XRP outperforms the benchmark asset, it typically reflects rising confidence rather than a narrow, Bitcoin-only bid. The breadth of the rally is a sign that traders are rotating risk back on across the board, not simply covering short positions in a single name. That risk-on posture has been a recurring theme alongside institutional accumulation, from corporate treasury additions to the expanding roster of large Bitcoin treasury holders.
Falling Fed hike odds give crypto bulls a macro tailwind
The macro trigger is the repricing of Fed expectations. CME FedWatch put the odds of a quarter-point hike at the September 16 meeting at just above 62%, according to unconfirmed reports carried by CoinDesk, down from earlier, more hawkish readings. Lower hike odds ease the pressure on risk assets by reducing the discount rate applied to speculative holdings like crypto.
That framing sits against a genuinely split central bank. On July 29, 2026, the FOMC kept the federal funds target range at 3.5% to 3.75% by a 9-3 vote, with three officials already preferring a 25-basis-point increase.
The hawkish camp has a vocal advocate. Fed Governor Christopher Waller, in a July 13 speech, warned that elevated core inflation could require tighter monetary policy in the near term.
“I am concerned about the elevated pace of core inflation.” — Christopher Waller, Federal Reserve
That is why the next data prints carry outsized weight. The Fed’s next scheduled meeting is September 15-16, 2026, and CoinDesk noted that Friday’s jobs report could determine whether Bitcoin extends its run toward $80,000, a level it has already brushed intraday.
The bigger pattern connecting these threads is a market caught between a dovish repricing and a Fed that has not fully committed to it. With hike odds still above a coin flip, Waller’s inflation warning unresolved, and a policy decision two weeks out, crypto’s near-term direction hinges less on token-specific catalysts than on which labor and inflation numbers land first, a dynamic also shaping regulatory bets like the odds around the CLARITY Act.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency and digital asset markets carry significant risk. Always do your own research before making decisions.
